Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?

The market suggests a low probability of an ECB rate increase in April 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 34.05% chance of an ECB rate increase at the April 2026 meeting, with a stronger sentiment against it at 65.95%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, suggesting a consensus that an increase is unlikely. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability for a rate increase is low at 34.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly favors a rate increase at 36.05%.
• 3 Current sentiment leans towards maintaining existing rates.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 975 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by Ma