Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?

High probability of no change at the ECB's March 2026 meeting.

The prediction market indicates a 98.4% probability that the ECB will announce no change at its March 2026 meeting, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 93.9%. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4.5, suggesting that current sentiment is stable but not overly confident.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a no-change announcement.
• 2 The probability reflects confidence in ECB's ongoing policy stability.
• 3 Historical trends show similar probabilities leading up to past meetings.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 232 hours until the meeting.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20