Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

High probability of low transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 3.

The prediction market indicates an 86.5% chance of having between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 82%, suggesting a consensus on the expected low transit volume. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a low transit scenario.
• 2 Geopolitical stability is a key factor influencing transit rates.
• 3 Historical data may support lower transit volumes during this period.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 95 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.