Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Market indicates low likelihood of 20-30 daily transits on April 3.

The prediction market shows a strong preference for a NO outcome regarding daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, with probabilities at 94.1% for NO and 5.90% for YES. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting limited expectations for transit activity in that range.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable expectation for transit levels.
• 3 Historical data may support low transit counts in similar conditions.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 102 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.