Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Low probability for 20-30 daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that there will not be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31, with a NO probability of 97.65%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 4.35%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data suggests low average daily transits in similar conditions.
• 3 Market probabilities indicate a well-balanced assessment of the situation.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.