Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Low probability for 30-40 daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31.

The market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of 30 to 40 average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz on March 31, with a NO probability of 93.8%. Both the market and AI predictions align closely, indicating a stable outlook with a fair pricing edge of 2. Confidence levels are moderate at 60 out of 100, suggesting some uncertainty remains.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Historical data suggests low transit numbers in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 5 Time to expiry is ample, allowing for potential shifts in conditions.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.