Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

The market strongly favors no average daily transits of 40-50 on April 3.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of no average daily transits between 40 and 50 for April 3, with a consensus probability of 99.75%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a yes outcome at 2.25%. Given the current confidence level of 60/100 and the time remaining until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a marginally higher probability for 'YES'.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 90 hours.
• 5 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.