Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Low probability of 50-60 daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz on April 3.

The market indicates a strong consensus against the occurrence of 50 to 60 average daily transits on April 3, with a 99.7% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a low likelihood of such transit levels based on current data and trends.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 91 hours, adding urgency to the market.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.