At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?…

6.10%

16.01%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?…

7.45%

14.45%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?…	6.10%	16.01%	+5	55	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?… near	7.45%	14.45%	+7	40	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 6.10% NO 93.90%

Manifold

YES 7.45% NO 92.55%

Spread: 1.4 pts — platforms broadly agree.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO' on fatalities.
2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates some divergence in expectations.
3 Historical context shows low rates of nuclear weapon fatalities in recent decades.
4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.