At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?

Market suggests low likelihood of nuclear weapon fatalities in 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 11.01% probability of at least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026, with a stronger consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 16.01%, suggesting some uncertainty remains. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO' on fatalities.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates some divergence in expectations.
• 3 Historical context shows low rates of nuclear weapon fatalities in recent decades.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.