If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian r…

25.32%

35.46%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$3K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian r…

25.32%

37.46%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$1K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian …

25.32%

39.30%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iran…	25.32%	35.46%	+5	55	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iran… near	25.32%	37.46%	+7	50	$1K	Detail Trade →
Manifold If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Ira… near	25.32%	39.30%	+7	50	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 25.32% NO 74.68%

Manifold

YES 25.32% NO 74.68%

Manifold

YES 25.32% NO 74.68%

Spread: 0 pts — platforms broadly agree.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment leans towards regime stability in Iran post-strike.
2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives on regime resilience.
3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.
5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.