If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Market suggests low likelihood of Iran's regime falling if the US strikes by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 30.46% chance of the Iranian regime falling in 2026 following a US strike, with a stronger consensus leaning towards stability. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability of 35.46%, suggesting some divergence in sentiment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards regime stability in Iran post-strike.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives on regime resilience.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.