Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?…

0.45%

4.55%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$7.5M

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?…

27.50%

94.00%

AI YES

-6

Edge pts

Confidence

$2M

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?…

34.50%

55.00%

AI YES

-9

Edge pts

Confidence

$73K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?…

36.50%

55.50%

AI YES

-9

Edge pts

Confidence

$70K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?…

12.00%

46.50%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$36K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 3…	0.45%	4.55%	+2	85	$7.5M	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 3… near	27.50%	94.00%	-6	85	$2M	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?… near	34.50%	55.00%	-9	60	$73K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30… near	36.50%	55.50%	-9	60	$70K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 1… near	12.00%	46.50%	-3	60	$36K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 0.45% NO 99.55%

Polymarket

YES 27.50% NO 72.50%

Polymarket

YES 34.50% NO 65.50%

Polymarket

YES 36.50% NO 63.50%

Polymarket

YES 12.00% NO 88.00%

Spread: 36.1 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Market sentiment heavily favors NO, indicating low expectations for change.
2 The probability gap between YES and NO suggests stability in current control.
3 Historical trends show similar patterns in geopolitical stability in the region.
4 Liquidity appears adequate, reflecting confidence in the current pricing.
5 Time pressure of 45 hours may limit the impact of new developments.