Market predicts Kharg Island will be out of Iranian control by April 30.
The market shows a strong consensus with a 100% probability for a YES outcome regarding Kharg Island's control status by the end of April. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 94%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. The confidence level is high at 85 out of 100, suggesting a robust belief in the prediction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 30, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a