Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?…

12.50%

13.50%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$3.1M

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?…

4.40%

7.40%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$778K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 202…

81.88%

74.74%

AI YES

-7

Edge pts

Confidence

$17K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 202…

83.35%

76.19%

AI YES

-7

Edge pts

Confidence

$17K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 202…

90.29%

82.44%

AI YES

-7

Edge pts

Confidence

$12K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?…	12.50%	13.50%	+3	85	$3.1M	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?… near	4.40%	7.40%	+3	75	$778K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	81.88%	74.74%	-7	45	$17K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	83.35%	76.19%	-7	45	$17K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	90.29%	82.44%	-7	55	$12K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	66.79%	59.08%	-7	45	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	53.88%	49.22%	-4.5	45	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end o… near	89.16%	80.35%	-9	50	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 12.50% NO 87.50%

Polymarket

YES 4.40% NO 95.60%

Manifold

YES 81.88% NO 18.12%

Manifold

YES 83.35% NO 16.65%

Manifold

YES 90.29% NO 9.71%

Spread: 85.9 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability for Putin leaving is low at 10.5%.
2 Pulse AI probability slightly higher at 13.5%, indicating some uncertainty.
3 Market sentiment reflects confidence in Putin's continued presidency.
4 Time to expiry is substantial at 7023 hours, allowing for potential developments.
5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, suggesting stability in predictions.