Events › AI & Tech › Will AI kill >20% of the human population bef…
AI & Tech 1 platform 4 markets

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Combined AI YES
18.2%
Avg Confidence
49/100
Combined Volume
$137K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?…
2.79%
7.22%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$104K
Volume
Manifold
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?…
8.17%
12.67%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$24K
Volume
Manifold
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?…
14.47%
12.78%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$9K
Volume
Manifold
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?…
36.00%
42.50%
AI YES
+6.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?…
 2.79% 7.22% +4.5
50
$104K
Manifold
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?…
near 		8.17% 12.67% +4.5
50
$24K
Manifold
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?…
near 		14.47% 12.78% +4.5
50
$9K
Manifold
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?…
near 		36.00% 42.50% +6.5
45
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 2.79% NO 97.21%
Manifold
YES 8.17% NO 91.83%
Manifold
YES 14.47% NO 85.53%
Manifold
YES 36.00% NO 64.00%
Spread: 33.2 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 97.28%.
  • 2 Pulse AI reflects a similar view with a 92.78% 'NO' probability.
  • 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 33441 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category AI & Tech
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 2.79%
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?…
Manifold 8.17%
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?…
Manifold 14.47%
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?…
Manifold 36.00%
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?…
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