Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

The market shows low probability for AI causing mass extinction by 2040.

Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief that misaligned AI will not lead to the death of over 50% of humanity before 2040, with a probability of only 8.17% for a 'yes' outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 12.67%, suggesting some uncertainty remains in expert predictions. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 50 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'no' outcome.
• 2 Expert predictions show slightly higher concern than market sentiment.
• 3 The market probability suggests a stable consensus on AI risks.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time until expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.