Markets / AI & Tech / Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 1300 days OPEN

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

5.33%
Market YES
94.67%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
9.83%
AI YES
55
Confidence
55
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Low market probability suggests minimal concern over AI causing human extinction by 2030.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that AI will not wipe out humanity before 2030, with a 94.67% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 9.83%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall confidence in the 'NO' outcome.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
  • 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus against AI extinction risk.
  • 3 Confidence level of 55 suggests moderate uncertainty among participants.
  • 4 The edge of 4.5 implies the market is fairly priced based on current data.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major AI breakthrough raises existential risk concerns
Significant public or governmental discourse on AI safety
High-profile incidents involving AI causing harm
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $7,269,389
Liquidity $0
Resolves 02 Jan 2030
Status Open
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