Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

The market strongly favors that Baidu will not have the best AI model by March 2026.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against Baidu having the best AI model. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher uncertainty. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Baidu's AI model.
• 2 The probability gap indicates low confidence in Baidu's potential.
• 3 Pulse AI shows slightly more optimism, but still leans towards 'NO'.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 The edge suggests that the market is reflecting a balanced view of probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.