Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

736 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March?
89%
Market YES
11%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 86.45% -7 pts
50/100
Market predicts a high likelihood of Apple closing above $220 by end of March.
Will Anthropic Claude remain in the top 10 free apps on Apple App Store for 7+ consecutive days in March 2026?
79%
Market YES
21%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 72% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
will i qualify for the IPO 2026 team?
67.77%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60.77% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?
69%
Market YES
31%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62% -7 pts
55/100
There's a 69% chance an AI-composed song will hit the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027.
Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM
66.12%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.12% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?
80%
Market YES
20%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 73% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?
67%
Market YES
33%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?
71.32%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64.32% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
OpenAI beats Grok on arena.ai before June?
69.59%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62.59% -7 pts
50/100
Market favors OpenAI to outperform Grok on arena.ai before June.
Humanoid Robot Finishes a Half Marathon Under 2 Hours by 2030
74.73%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 67.73% -7 pts
40/100
High probability for a humanoid robot to finish a half marathon under 2 hours by 2030.
Will a new AI model be more capable than GPT-4 before January 1, 2027?
85.04%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.04% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?
62%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a major tech CEO step down before 2027?
71%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)
71%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?
78%
Market YES
22%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027
81.35%
Market YES
19%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 74.35% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
63.18%
Market YES
37%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.18% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the OpenAI GPT Store (or equivalent “AI App Store”) launch before August 1, 2026?
85%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?
89.91%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 82.91% -7 pts
45/100
High likelihood of a community forming around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028.
Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company
70%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 63% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Anthropic cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers before 2028?
61.53%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.53% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?
61.14%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.14% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
62%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -7 pts
55/100
There is a 62% chance that major copyright reforms for AI works will be enacted by 2026.
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2030?
90%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 83% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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