Markets / AI & Tech / Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen...

Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 165 days OPEN

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

91.12%

Market YES

8.88%

Market NO

Trade on Manifold →

Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

YES

Verdict

82.66%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: -7 pts

High probability of Claude 5 Opus release before October 2026.

The market indicates an 89.66% probability that Anthropic will release Claude 5 Opus or an equivalent by October 1, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 82.66%, suggesting strong confidence in the release timeline despite a slight edge indicating insufficient data for a more definitive assessment.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a release before the deadline.
2 The high probability reflects optimism about Anthropic's development pace.
3 Historical trends show increasing frequency of AI model releases.
4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, supporting the current probabilities.
5 Time pressure is significant with only 5519 hours until the deadline.