Markets / AI & Tech / Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 27231 days OPEN

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

13.99%
Market YES
86.01%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
18.25%
AI YES
55
Confidence
55
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market indicates low probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2100.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of AI causing human extinction before 2100, with a probability of 86.25% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 18.25%, suggesting some concern but overall a prevailing belief in safety.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 86.25%.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher concern at 18.25% for 'YES'.
  • 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 55/100 shows moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major AI breakthrough raises existential risk concerns
Significant public or governmental backlash against AI development
New research indicating higher risks associated with AI
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $4,171,084
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2101
Status Open
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