Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?…

3.92%

8.92%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$1K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?…	3.92%	8.92%	+5	50	$1K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 3.92% NO 96.08%

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Yudkowsky winning the award.
2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in the status quo of AI recognition.
3 Historical trends suggest that Turing Award winners are often well-established figures.
4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in this prediction.
5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in perception or achievements.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Event Info

Category Geopolitics

Platforms 1 platform

Markets 1 market

Markets on this Event