Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?

Market indicates low probability of Yudkowsky winning a Turing Award by 2038.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Eliezer Yudkowsky winning a Turing Award before 2038, with a 96.08% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 8.92%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market's assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Yudkowsky winning the award.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in the status quo of AI recognition.
• 3 Historical trends suggest that Turing Award winners are often well-established figures.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in this prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in perception or achievements.