Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Combined AI YES

20.3%

Avg Confidence

55/100

Combined Volume

$2K

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the …

20.64%

20.25%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass…	20.64%	20.25%	+5	55	$2K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 20.64% NO 79.36%

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Market probability for a YES outcome is low at 15.25%.
2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability of 20.25% for a YES outcome.
3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty.
5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6900 hours, allowing for potential developments.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Event Info

Category Geopolitics

Platforms 1 platform

Markets 1 market

Markets on this Event