Markets / Geopolitics / Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the ...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires in 145 days OPEN

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

20.64%
Market YES
79.36%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
20.25%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of a peaceful agreement with Iran by 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong expectation that Europe will not reach a peaceful agreement with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz by 2026, despite ongoing tensions from the US/Iran war. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating cautious optimism but still leaning towards a negative outcome.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability for a YES outcome is low at 15.25%.
  • 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability of 20.25% for a YES outcome.
  • 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6900 hours, allowing for potential developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant diplomatic breakthroughs between Europe and Iran
Escalation or de-escalation of the US/Iran conflict
Changes in leadership or policy in key countries involved
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,818
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
Related Markets
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 3...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 14?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 7?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 31?...
1.95% NO polymarket