Events › Politics › Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican…
Politics 1 platform 5 markets

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Combined AI YES
19.4%
Avg Confidence
81/100
Combined Volume
$13.1M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
64.50%
37.00%
AI YES
-1.5
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$4.1M
Volume
Polymarket
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
0.05%
1.55%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$3.5M
Volume
Polymarket
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
33.50%
56.50%
AI YES
-4
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$2.9M
Volume
Polymarket
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
0.05%
1.65%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
85
Confidence
$1.7M
Volume
Polymarket
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
0.10%
1.55%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$893K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
 64.50% 37.00% -1.5
80
$4.1M
Polymarket
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Prima…
near 		0.05% 1.55% +1.5
80
$3.5M
Polymarket
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
near 		33.50% 56.50% -4
80
$2.9M
Polymarket
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
near 		0.05% 1.65% +1.5
85
$1.7M
Polymarket
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Prim…
near 		0.10% 1.55% +1.5
80
$893K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 64.50% NO 35.50%
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Polymarket
YES 33.50% NO 66.50%
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Polymarket
YES 0.10% NO 99.90%
Spread: 64.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Hunt.
  • 2 Key factors include Hunt's current political standing and campaign dynamics.
  • 3 Historical base rates suggest low chances for candidates with similar odds.
  • 4 Market liquidity indicates limited interest in betting on Hunt's success.
  • 5 Time pressure is unclear, affecting potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 5 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 64.50%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
Polymarket 0.05%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
Polymarket 33.50%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
Polymarket 0.05%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
Polymarket 0.10%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?…
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