Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ken Paxton has a 38.5% chance of winning the 2026 Texas Republican Primary.

The prediction market indicates a 38.5% probability of Ken Paxton winning the 2026 Texas Republican Primary, with a stronger sentiment against him at 61.5%. The Pulse AI model aligns closely, suggesting a 37% chance for Paxton, indicating a consensus that he faces significant challenges in the primary race.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans against Paxton's candidacy.
• 2 The probability suggests a competitive primary landscape.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a balanced view on Paxton's chances.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 80/100.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in the political climate.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.