US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

The market predicts no ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15.

Currently, the prediction market assigns a 0% probability to a US-Iran ceasefire by March 15, indicating strong skepticism about the likelihood of such an event. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 3% probability for a ceasefire, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a high confidence level of 90 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against a ceasefire.
• 2 High confidence level indicates stability in current predictions.
• 3 Low probability suggests minimal market liquidity.
• 4 Historical trends show limited success in US-Iran negotiations.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta