Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

The market strongly favors that the Iranian regime will not fall by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the Iranian regime's fall, with a 97.25% chance of stability. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that significant changes in the political landscape are needed for a shift in these probabilities.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong belief in regime stability.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher but still low chance of regime change.
• 3 Confidence level is high, suggesting market participants are certain.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, with only 285 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will no