Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

The market strongly favors that the Iranian regime will not fall by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a high confidence that the Iranian regime will remain in power, with a 99.85% chance of stability. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for regime change at 1.65%, but overall sentiment leans heavily towards the regime's continuity.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in regime stability.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a marginally higher chance of regime change.
• 3 Current probabilities suggest a well-priced market with minimal edge.
• 4 High confidence level of 95/100 reflects strong market sentiment.
• 5 Uncertainty about time to expiry may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will no