US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

The market shows a strong belief that a US-Iran ceasefire will not occur by March 6.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that a ceasefire will not be achieved by March 6, with a very low AI probability of 3% for a YES outcome. This suggests a consensus among participants that the geopolitical situation remains tense and unlikely to resolve in the near term.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for the ceasefire.
• 2 The AI model predicts a very low chance of a ceasefire occurring.
• 3 Current geopolitical tensions contribute to the market's NO stance.
• 4 Historical trends show similar situations have often resulted in prolonged conflict.
• 5 Market pricing appears stable, indicating confidence in the NO prediction.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United Sta