Netanyahu out by March 31?

The market strongly favors Netanyahu remaining in office until at least March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a high confidence in Netanyahu staying in power, with only 0.15% likelihood of him leaving by the end of March. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1.65% for his departure, suggesting that the sentiment is firmly against the possibility of his exit.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects stability in his leadership.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often remain in power.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for current market activity.
• 5 No imminent time pressure indicated for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.