Events › Politics › Will the Republican Party control the House a…
Politics 2 platforms 9 markets

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Combined AI YES
43.6%
Avg Confidence
66/100
Combined Volume
$5.1M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 M…
15.50%
18.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
85
Confidence
$1.9M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 M…
84.50%
80.50%
AI YES
-4
Edge pts
85
Confidence
$1.9M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 …
52.50%
53.00%
AI YES
-1.5
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$664K
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 …
47.50%
44.00%
AI YES
-1.5
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$564K
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships a…
10.50%
20.00%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$44K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2…
 15.50% 18.50% +3
85
$1.9M
Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2…
near 		84.50% 80.50% -4
85
$1.9M
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the …
near 		52.50% 53.00% -1.5
80
$664K
Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the …
near 		47.50% 44.00% -1.5
80
$564K
Polymarket
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorsh…
near 		10.50% 20.00% +4.5
60
$44K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 15.50% NO 84.50%
Polymarket
YES 84.50% NO 15.50%
Polymarket
YES 52.50% NO 47.50%
Polymarket
YES 47.50% NO 52.50%
Polymarket
YES 10.50% NO 89.50%
Spread: 75.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Republican control.
  • 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is relatively small.
  • 3 Confidence in the market's pricing is rated at 85 out of 100.
  • 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.
  • 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, indicating balanced expectations.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 9 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 15.50%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 M…
Polymarket 84.50%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 M…
Polymarket 52.50%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 …
Polymarket 47.50%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 …
Polymarket 10.50%
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships a…
+4 more markets
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