Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The market strongly favors Democratic control of the House in 2026.

With an 84.5% probability for Democratic control, the market indicates a strong belief in their continued dominance. The Pulse AI also supports this view with an 80.5% probability, suggesting a consensus among analysts. The edge of -4 indicates that the market pricing is considered fair at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Democratic control.
• 2 Key factors include historical voting patterns and current political climate.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in the market's pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.