Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework by July 1, 2026?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework b…

39.43%

46.43%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will the U.S. and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework…

18.00%

46.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by A…

25.26%

32.26%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framew…	39.43%	46.43%	+7	55	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will the U.S. and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal fram… near	18.00%	46.00%	+7	55	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement… near	25.26%	32.26%	+7	55	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 39.43% NO 60.57%

Manifold

YES 18.00% NO 82.00%

Manifold

YES 25.26% NO 74.74%

Spread: 21.4 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome with 60.57% probability.
2 The Pulse AI indicates a closer probability split than the market.
3 The edge of 7 suggests insufficient data for a confident prediction.
4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2276 hours, allowing for potential developments.
5 Geopolitical tensions and historical context heavily influence market dynamics.