Will the U.S. and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework agreement by June 30, 2026?

The market shows a low probability for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by June 2026.

With a market probability of 39% for a formal nuclear deal framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran by June 30, 2026, and a competing AI probability of 46%, the outlook remains uncertain. The higher NO probability at 61% suggests skepticism about reaching an agreement, reflecting geopolitical complexities and historical tensions. The confidence rating of 55/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards skepticism about a deal.
• 2 Geopolitical tensions remain a significant barrier to agreement.
• 3 Historical context shows previous negotiations have often stalled.
• 4 Market liquidity is moderate, impacting the reliability of predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with 112 hours until the next assessment.