Events › Geopolitics › Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear…
Geopolitics 1 platform 3 markets

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Combined AI YES
24.2%
Avg Confidence
48/100
Combined Volume
$5K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons agains…
60.00%
47.00%
AI YES
+7
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?…
6.89%
11.89%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$3K
Volume
Manifold
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran befor…
14.00%
16.00%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$2K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons a…
 60.00% 47.00% +7
45
—
Manifold
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 203…
near 		6.89% 11.89% +5
50
$3K
Manifold
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran …
near 		14.00% 16.00% +5
50
$2K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 60.00% NO 40.00%
Manifold
YES 6.89% NO 93.11%
Manifold
YES 14.00% NO 86.00%
Spread: 53.1 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about nuclear use.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher, indicating some uncertainty.
  • 3 The edge of 5 suggests the market is well-balanced.
  • 4 Confidence level at 50 indicates mixed sentiment among participants.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 60.00%
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons agains…
Manifold 6.89%
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?…
Manifold 14.00%
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran befor…
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