Events › Other › Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in…
Other 1 platform 4 markets

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Combined AI YES
31.1%
Avg Confidence
63/100
Combined Volume
$7M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 20…
21.10%
23.10%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$6.4M
Volume
Polymarket
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 20…
17.00%
21.00%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$294K
Volume
Polymarket
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 202…
53.00%
52.50%
AI YES
-1
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$151K
Volume
Polymarket
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 202…
28.00%
29.50%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$103K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. …
 21.10% 23.10% +2
65
$6.4M
Polymarket
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. …
near 		17.00% 21.00% +2
65
$294K
Polymarket
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. i…
near 		53.00% 52.50% -1
60
$151K
Polymarket
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. i…
near 		28.00% 29.50% +2
60
$103K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 21.10% NO 78.90%
Polymarket
YES 17.00% NO 83.00%
Polymarket
YES 53.00% NO 47.00%
Polymarket
YES 28.00% NO 72.00%
Spread: 36 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors a low probability of high measles cases.
  • 2 The market shows stability with a fair pricing edge of 2.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
  • 5 Historical data on measles outbreaks may influence future probabilities.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Other
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 21.10%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 20…
Polymarket 17.00%
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 20…
Polymarket 53.00%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 202…
Polymarket 28.00%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 202…
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