Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

The market predicts a low likelihood of 10,000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026.

The current market probability indicates a 21.10% chance of at least 10,000 measles cases occurring in the U.S. in 2026, with a stronger consensus leaning towards the 'NO' outcome at 78.9%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a low probability of high measles cases.
• 2 The market shows stability with a fair pricing edge of 2.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Historical data on measles outbreaks may influence future probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.