Markets / Science & Health

🔬 Science & Health Markets

66 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?
4.5%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will "It Is Reasonable To Research How To Use Model..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
10.3%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.8% +5.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the construction of the space hotel Voyager Station begin in 2026?
6.27%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.77% +5.5 pts
50/100
The likelihood of Voyager Station's construction starting in 2026 is low.
Will "Safety researchers should take a public stance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
26.03%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.53% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?
17.62%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.12% +5.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for Anysphere/Cursor entering repository hosting in 2026.
Will Lubbock get top 16 at Science Bowl Nationals 2026?
42.15%
Market YES
58%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47.65% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Free Lottery (polio virus)
30.29%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.79% +5.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will major health bodies recommend limiting linoleic acid intake before 2050?
15.91%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.41% +5.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
15.4%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.9% +5.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a low probability for FDA approval of an HIV vaccine by 2027.
Will a single infectious disease cause 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 15, 2026?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +5.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a 40% chance of 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 2026.
Will I get into Simons Summer Research Program 2026?
35.07%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.57% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Free Lottery (virus in biosphere)
31.32%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.82% +5.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
45%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.5% +5.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?
24%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +5.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?
57%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.5% -4.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Lubbock qualify for double elimination at Science Bowl Nationals 2026?
74.56%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 70.06% -4.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the NASA Viper rover land on the moon before 2030?
56.94%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.44% -4.5 pts
45/100
The market indicates a slight chance of the Viper rover landing on the moon before 2030.
Will NASA's Artemis II mission successfully launch by May 1st, 2026?
66%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 61.5% -4.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will a human die in space by 2035?
58.36%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.86% -4.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Free Lottery (virus to bacteria ratio)
6.39%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.39% +4 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.5% +3.5 pts
50/100
Market shows low confidence in FDA approval of mRNA herpes vaccines by 2028.
Will there be an Opioid Vaccine available by the end of 2026?
4.56%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.06% +3.5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of an Opioid Vaccine by 2026.
Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?
4.87%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.37% +3.5 pts
45/100
The market strongly favors that Lyme disease did not come from a laboratory.
Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?
49%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $29K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.5% +3.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-even split on Luigi Magione's defense claim.
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