Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Market shows a slight favor for Space Force operating a crewed spacecraft by 2040.

The prediction market indicates a 57% probability that Space Force will operate a crewed spacecraft by 2040, with a close AI probability of 52.5%. The edge of -4.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment, reflecting uncertainty in the timeline and feasibility of such a development.

• 1 Current sentiment leans slightly towards a YES outcome.
• 2 Market probabilities indicate a competitive outlook with close margins.
• 3 Insufficient data leads to a low confidence score of 45/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Political and technological factors will significantly influence future probabilities.