Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Market indicates low probability of Xi Jinping leaving office before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Xi Jinping departing before 2027, with a probability of just 8.7% for a departure. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 9.2%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced. The high confidence level indicates a robust sentiment supporting the current leadership stability.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Xi Jinping remaining in power.
• 2 The probabilities reflect a stable political environment in China.
• 3 Historical trends show low turnover in Chinese leadership.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.