Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Market sees a close probability for 5000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a slight lean towards the possibility of at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with a probability of 53.50%. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a higher likelihood of cases.
• 2 Probability is closely aligned with Pulse AI estimates.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in public health data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.