Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?…

36.00%

38.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$156K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?…

53.00%

52.00%

AI YES

-1

Edge pts

Confidence

$57K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?…

16.00%

18.50%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$44K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?…

21.50%

23.50%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$15K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?…

8.40%

8.90%

AI YES

+0.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$13K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?…	36.00%	38.00%	+2	65	$156K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?…	53.00%	52.00%	-1	65	$57K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?…	16.00%	18.50%	+2	65	$44K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?…	21.50%	23.50%	+2	65	$15K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?…	8.40%	8.90%	+0.5	65	$13K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 36.00% NO 64.00%

Polymarket

YES 53.00% NO 47.00%

Polymarket

YES 16.00% NO 84.00%

Polymarket

YES 21.50% NO 78.50%

Polymarket

YES 8.40% NO 91.60%

Spread: 44.6 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 64%, indicating optimism about job stability.
2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting a cautious outlook.
3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
4 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the predictions.
5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to long-term forecasts.