Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla announce the “Model 2” (sub-$30k EV) before July 1, 2026?

2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

87%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

14.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

37.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2027?

17.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

50.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number than 4.6 by April 15th?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Apple name an outside CEO to replace Tim Cook in 2026?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

29.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

21.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $13K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

38.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

53%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

66.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

63%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Apple CEO Tim Cook announce his retirement or resignation by the end of 2030?

97.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

45.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

73.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

AI sex bots cause major celeb scandal with >10M X memes by 2026?

42.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

19.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

22.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Microsoft buy Reddit before 2029?

20.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?

18.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will a new AI model be more capable than GPT-4 before January 1, 2027?

87%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

47%

Avg YES

Manifold