Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

27.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $113K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

48.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $333K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will Anthropic leave AWS in 2026?

8.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?

21.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $19K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?

14.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $169K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will AI replace jurors in trials?

31.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

64.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $77K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

60%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

49.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $17K

🤖 AI & Tech 3 markets

Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?

19.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $145K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

11%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2.3M

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

35.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $377K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

46.3%

Avg YES

Polymarket $255K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?

78.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $58K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?

48.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $15K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?

86.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

55%

Avg YES

Manifold $496K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-2 this decade?

62.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

23.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $180K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

67%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

12.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

89.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $304K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

33.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🤖 AI & Tech 2 markets

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

42.5%

Avg YES

Manifold