Events › AI & Tech › Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the Fr…
AI & Tech 1 platform 3 markets

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Combined AI YES
49.1%
Avg Confidence
57/100
Combined Volume
$333K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
43.90%
46.51%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$8K
Volume
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
70.68%
63.76%
AI YES
-5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$284K
Volume
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
31.26%
39.50%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$42K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath…
 43.90% 46.51% +4.5
60
$8K
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath…
near 		70.68% 63.76% -5
50
$284K
Manifold
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath…
 31.26% 39.50% +4.5
60
$42K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 43.90% NO 56.10%
Manifold
YES 70.68% NO 29.32%
Manifold
YES 31.26% NO 68.74%
Spread: 39.4 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' slightly over 'YES'.
  • 2 Pulse AI model shows a more optimistic view compared to market odds.
  • 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments in AI technology.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category AI & Tech
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 43.90%
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
Manifold 70.68%
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
Manifold 31.26%
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benc…
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