Markets / AI & Tech / Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benc...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 141 days OPEN

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

43.9%
Market YES
56.1%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
46.51%
AI YES
60
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market shows a close divide on AI achieving high performance by 2027.

The prediction market indicates a slight lean towards 'NO' at 57.99%, while the Pulse AI model suggests a more favorable outlook for 'YES' at 46.51%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 7105 hours, the market is deemed too close to call.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' slightly over 'YES'.
  • 2 Pulse AI model shows a more optimistic view compared to market odds.
  • 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments in AI technology.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Breakthrough in AI algorithms or techniques
New data or results from the FrontierMath benchmark
Increased investment or interest in AI research
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $8,017
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2027
Status Open
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