Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Market indicates a strong belief AI will exceed 85% on FrontierMath by 2028.

The market shows a 68.76% probability that an AI will achieve over 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028, suggesting optimism in AI advancements. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 63.76%, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty. With a confidence level of 50/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects balanced expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a positive outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects confidence in ongoing AI advancements.
• 3 Historical trends suggest increasing AI capabilities over time.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating active participation in the market.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with 15821 hours until expiry.