Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Market leans towards AI not achieving >85% on FrontierMath by 2027.

The current market probability indicates a 65% likelihood that an AI will not achieve over 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance of 39.5% for a YES outcome, indicating some optimism among participants. With a confidence score of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge of 4.5, the market reflects a balanced assessment of the situation.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome with 65% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view at 39.5% for YES.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7088 hours, allowing for potential developments.